Activity 1.1 E
Use forsight to identify trends
The exercises in this activity aim to explore how trends can create opportunities or problems in your context or in the wider humanitarian sector.
Things to consider
- Make sure that you understand sensitivities regarding the discussion of political and social trends with a diverse group and manage the process accordingly.
- In conflict environments, carrying out a conflict analysis and using this to feed into this work should be seriously considered.
- Consider the potential impacts of climate change or other natural hazards.
- The legal environment can be critical for innovation, whether it is around organisational registration, or the ability to protect intellectual property such as patents. Don’t skip over this bit!
- Think about how humanitarian principles might be impacted by the trends you uncover. Most tools don’t cover this explicitly, so use the Legal section to discuss it.
Arup Foresight Drivers of Change
[Simple categories of drivers]
[The world’s largest open foresight initiative]
[An interesting list of workshops/games/activities]
UK Government Office for Science (2017) The Futures Toolkit: Tools for Futures Thinking and Foresight Across UK Government
[See p 29 for ‘7 Questions’, and p 35 for ‘Delphi’]
Tetlock, P, Garner, D (2016) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
[Insights into the potential traps of foresight and predictions]